| Trường DC | Giá trị | Ngôn ngữ |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Arcade Ndoricimpa | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-01T10:23:47Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2023-11-01T10:23:47Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.identifier.isbn | 1969-0020 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://dlib.neu.edu.vn/handle/NEU/58642 | - |
| dc.description | state management | |
| dc.description.abstract | Purpose – The purpose of this study is to seek to re-examine the threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in Africa. Design/methodology/approach – This study applies panel smooth transition regression approach advanced by Gonz alez et al. (2017). The method allows for both heterogeneity as well as a smooth change of regression coefficients from one regime to another. Findings – A debt threshold in the range of 62–66% is estimated for the whole sample. Low debt is found to be growth neutral but higher public debt is growth detrimental. For middle-income and resource-intensive countries, a debt threshold in the range of 58–63% is estimated. As part of robustness checks, a dynamic panel threshold model was also applied to deal with the endogeneity of debt, and a much higher debt threshold was estimated, at 74.3%. While low public debt is found to be either growth neutral or growth enhancing, high public debt is consistently detrimental to growth. Research limitations/implications – The findings of this study show that there is no single debt threshold applicable to all African countries, and confirm that the debt threshold level is sensitive to modeling choices. While further analysis is still needed to suggest a policy, the findings of this study show that high debt is detrimental to growth. Originality/value – The novelty of this study is twofold. Contrary to previous studies on Africa, this study applies a different estimation technique which allows for heterogeneity and a smooth change of regression coefficients from one regime to another. Another novelty distinct from the previous studies is that, for robustness checks, this study divides the sample into low- and middle-income countries, and into resource- and nonresource intensive countries, as debt experience can differ among country groups. Further, as part of robustness checks, another estimation method is also applied in which the threshold variable (debt) is allowed to be endogenous. | |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 1. Introduction; 2. Stylized facts on public debt and growth in Africa; 3. Literature review; 4. Methodology; 5. Data, results [3] and discussion; 6. Concluding remarks | |
| dc.format.extent | Khổ 21 x 29.7 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Kinh Tế Quốc Dân | |
| dc.subject | Africa | |
| dc.subject | Economic growth | |
| dc.subject | Public debt | |
| dc.subject | Debt threshold | |
| dc.subject | Panel smooth transition regression | |
| dc.title | Threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in Africa: a new evidence | |
| dc.type | Journal of Economics and Development | |
| dc.identifier.barcode | 10-1108_JED-01-2020-0001 | |
| dc.relation.reference | African Development Bank (2018), African Economic Outlook 2018, Abidjan, C^ote d’Ivoire. Akobeng, E. (2016), “Growth and institutions: a potential medicine for the poor in Sub- Saharan Africa”, African Development Review, Vol. 28 No. 1, pp. 1-17. Anyanwu, J.C. (2014), “Factors affecting economic growth in Africa: are there any lessons from China?”, African Development Review, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 468-93. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997), “Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 1-26. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003), Economic Growth, 2nd ed., MIT Press, Cambridge and London. Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C. and Rother, I. (2013), “Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 32, pp. 809-821. Caner, M., Grennes, T. and Koehler-Geib, F. (2010), “Finding the tipping point – when sovereign debt turns bad”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5391. Cecchetti, S.G., Mohanty, M.S. and Zampolli, F. (2011), “The real effects of debt”, Bank for International Settlements Working Papers No. 352. Checherita-Westphal, C. and Rother, P. (2012), “The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: an empirical investigation for the euro area”, European Economic Review, Vol. 56 No. 7, pp. 1392-1405. Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M.H. and Raissi, M. (2013), “Debt, inflation and growth - robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models”, CESifo Working Paper No. 4508, CESifo Group, Munich. Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M.H. and Raissi, M. (2017), “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 99 No. 1, pp. 135-150. Cordella, T., Ricci, L. and Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2005), “ Debt overhang or debt irrelevance? Revisiting the debt-growth link” , IMF Working Paper No. WP/05/223. Coulibaly, B.S., Gandhi, D. and Senbet, L.W. (2019), “ Is sub-Saharan Africa facing another systemic sovereign debt crisis?” , Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings, Policy Brief. Deshpande, A. (1997), “The debt overhang and the disincentive to invest”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 52, pp. 64-111. Easterly, W., Ritzan, J. and Woolcock, M. (2006), “Social cohesion, institutions, and growth”, Working Paper No. 94, Center for Global Development, Economics and Politics, Vol. 18 No. 2, pp. 103-120. Eberhardt, M. and Presbitero, A. (2015), “Public debt and growth: heterogeneity and non-linearity”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 97 No. 1, pp. 45-58. Edwards, S. (1997), “Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know?”, NBER Working Paper No. 5978. Egert, B. (2015a), “Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: myth or reality?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 43, pp. 226-238. Egert, B. (2015b), “The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact”, Applied Economics, Vol. 47, pp. 3756-3770. Elbadawi, I., Ndulu, B. and Ndung’u, N. (1997), “Debt overhang and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa”, in Iqbal, Z. and Kanbur, R. (Eds), External Finance for Low-Income Countries, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Gonz alez, A., Ter€asvirta, T., van Dijk, D. and Yang, Y. (2017), “Panel smooth transition regression models”, CREATES Research Paper No. 2017-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark. Hansen, B.E. (1999), “Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 93, pp. 345-368. Imbs, J. and Ranciere, R. (2005), “The overhang hangover”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3673. International Monetary Fund (2018), Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment, The Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, IMF, Washington, DC. Kaminsky, G.L. and Pereira, A. (1996), “The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 50 No.1, pp. 1-24. Kremer, S., Bick, A. and Nautz, D. (2013), “Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis”, Empirical Economics, Vol. 44 No.2, pp. 861-878. Kumar, M.K. and Woo, J. (2010), “Public debt and growth”, IMF Working Paper No. WP/10/174. Lee, S., Seo, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2011), “Testing for threshold effects in regression models”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 106, pp. 220-231. Levine, R. and Renelt, D. (1992), “A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 82 No. 4, pp. 942-963. Manzano, O. and Rigobon, R. (2001), “Resource curse or debt overhang?”, NBER Working Paper No. 8390. Mensah, L., Allotey, D., Sarpong-Kumankoma, E. and Coffie, W. (2019), “What debt threshold hampers economic growth in Africa?”, International Journal of Development Issues, Vol. 19 No. 1, pp. 25-42, doi: 10.1108/IJDI-03-2019-0056. Mijiyawa, A.G. (2013), “Africa’s recent economic growth: what are the contributing factors?”, African Development Review, Vol. 25 No. 3, pp. 289-302. Ndoricimpa, A. (2014), “Heterogeneous panel causality between exports and growth in COMESA countries”, Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 48 No. 4, pp. 349-361. Ndoricimpa, A. (2017), “Threshold effects of debt on economic growth in Africa”, African Development Review, Vol. 29 No. 3, pp. 471-484. Pattillo, C., Poirson, H. and Ricci, L.A. (2011), “ External debt and growth” , Review of Economics and Institutions, Vol. 2 No. 3. doi: 10.5202/rei.v2i3.45. Pescatori, A., Sandri, D. and Simon, J. (2014), “Debt and growth: is there a magic threshold?”, IMF Working Paper No. WP/14/34. Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2010), “Growth in a time of debt”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 100 No. 2, pp. 573-578. Rodrik, D. (1999), “Where did all the growth go? External shocks, social conflict, and growth collapses”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 4 No. 4, pp. 385-412. Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997), “I just ran two million regressions”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 87, pp. 178-183. Seleteng, M., Bittencourt, M. and van Eyden, R. (2013), “Non-linearities in inflation-growth nexus in the SADC region: panel smooth transition regression approach”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 30, pp. 149-156. Seo, M. and Shin, Y. (2016), “Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 195, pp. 169-186. Seo, M., Kim, S. and Kim, Y.-J. (2019), “Estimation of dynamic panel threshold model using STATA”, STATA Journal, Vol. 19 No. 3, pp. 685-697. Sokbae, L., Hyunmin, P., Seo, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2017), “Testing for a debt- threshold effect on output growth”, Fiscal Studies, Vol. 38 No. 4, pp. 701-717. Thanh, S.D. (2015), “Threshold effects of inflation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: a panel smooth transition regression approach”, Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Vol. 20, pp. 41-48. Vinayagathasan, T. (2013), “Inflation and economic growth: a dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 26, pp. 31-41. WDI (2018), “World Development Indicators, 2018”, The World Bank, Washington, DC. WDI (2019), “World Development Indicators, 2019”, The World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank (2018a), Debt Vulnerabilities in IDA Countries, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank (2018b), “Are poor countries headed towards another external debt crisis?”, Internal Note. World Bank (2019), “Debt in low-income countries: evolution, implications, and remedies”, Policy Research Working Paper No. 8794, World Bank Group, Washington, DC. | |
Bộ sưu tập | 02. Tạp chí (Tiếng Anh) | |
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| Trường DC | Giá trị | Ngôn ngữ |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Arcade Ndoricimpa | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-01T10:23:47Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2023-11-01T10:23:47Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.identifier.isbn | 1969-0020 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://dlib.neu.edu.vn/handle/NEU/58642 | - |
| dc.description | state management | |
| dc.description.abstract | Purpose – The purpose of this study is to seek to re-examine the threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in Africa. Design/methodology/approach – This study applies panel smooth transition regression approach advanced by Gonz alez et al. (2017). The method allows for both heterogeneity as well as a smooth change of regression coefficients from one regime to another. Findings – A debt threshold in the range of 62–66% is estimated for the whole sample. Low debt is found to be growth neutral but higher public debt is growth detrimental. For middle-income and resource-intensive countries, a debt threshold in the range of 58–63% is estimated. As part of robustness checks, a dynamic panel threshold model was also applied to deal with the endogeneity of debt, and a much higher debt threshold was estimated, at 74.3%. While low public debt is found to be either growth neutral or growth enhancing, high public debt is consistently detrimental to growth. Research limitations/implications – The findings of this study show that there is no single debt threshold applicable to all African countries, and confirm that the debt threshold level is sensitive to modeling choices. While further analysis is still needed to suggest a policy, the findings of this study show that high debt is detrimental to growth. Originality/value – The novelty of this study is twofold. Contrary to previous studies on Africa, this study applies a different estimation technique which allows for heterogeneity and a smooth change of regression coefficients from one regime to another. Another novelty distinct from the previous studies is that, for robustness checks, this study divides the sample into low- and middle-income countries, and into resource- and nonresource intensive countries, as debt experience can differ among country groups. Further, as part of robustness checks, another estimation method is also applied in which the threshold variable (debt) is allowed to be endogenous. | |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 1. Introduction; 2. Stylized facts on public debt and growth in Africa; 3. Literature review; 4. Methodology; 5. Data, results [3] and discussion; 6. Concluding remarks | |
| dc.format.extent | Khổ 21 x 29.7 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Kinh Tế Quốc Dân | |
| dc.subject | Africa | |
| dc.subject | Economic growth | |
| dc.subject | Public debt | |
| dc.subject | Debt threshold | |
| dc.subject | Panel smooth transition regression | |
| dc.title | Threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in Africa: a new evidence | |
| dc.type | Journal of Economics and Development | |
| dc.identifier.barcode | 10-1108_JED-01-2020-0001 | |
| dc.relation.reference | African Development Bank (2018), African Economic Outlook 2018, Abidjan, C^ote d’Ivoire. Akobeng, E. (2016), “Growth and institutions: a potential medicine for the poor in Sub- Saharan Africa”, African Development Review, Vol. 28 No. 1, pp. 1-17. Anyanwu, J.C. (2014), “Factors affecting economic growth in Africa: are there any lessons from China?”, African Development Review, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 468-93. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997), “Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 1-26. Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003), Economic Growth, 2nd ed., MIT Press, Cambridge and London. Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C. and Rother, I. (2013), “Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 32, pp. 809-821. Caner, M., Grennes, T. and Koehler-Geib, F. (2010), “Finding the tipping point – when sovereign debt turns bad”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5391. Cecchetti, S.G., Mohanty, M.S. and Zampolli, F. (2011), “The real effects of debt”, Bank for International Settlements Working Papers No. 352. Checherita-Westphal, C. and Rother, P. (2012), “The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: an empirical investigation for the euro area”, European Economic Review, Vol. 56 No. 7, pp. 1392-1405. Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M.H. and Raissi, M. (2013), “Debt, inflation and growth - robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models”, CESifo Working Paper No. 4508, CESifo Group, Munich. Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M.H. and Raissi, M. (2017), “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 99 No. 1, pp. 135-150. Cordella, T., Ricci, L. and Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2005), “ Debt overhang or debt irrelevance? Revisiting the debt-growth link” , IMF Working Paper No. WP/05/223. Coulibaly, B.S., Gandhi, D. and Senbet, L.W. (2019), “ Is sub-Saharan Africa facing another systemic sovereign debt crisis?” , Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings, Policy Brief. Deshpande, A. (1997), “The debt overhang and the disincentive to invest”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 52, pp. 64-111. Easterly, W., Ritzan, J. and Woolcock, M. (2006), “Social cohesion, institutions, and growth”, Working Paper No. 94, Center for Global Development, Economics and Politics, Vol. 18 No. 2, pp. 103-120. Eberhardt, M. and Presbitero, A. (2015), “Public debt and growth: heterogeneity and non-linearity”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 97 No. 1, pp. 45-58. Edwards, S. (1997), “Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know?”, NBER Working Paper No. 5978. Egert, B. (2015a), “Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: myth or reality?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 43, pp. 226-238. Egert, B. (2015b), “The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact”, Applied Economics, Vol. 47, pp. 3756-3770. Elbadawi, I., Ndulu, B. and Ndung’u, N. (1997), “Debt overhang and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa”, in Iqbal, Z. and Kanbur, R. (Eds), External Finance for Low-Income Countries, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Gonz alez, A., Ter€asvirta, T., van Dijk, D. and Yang, Y. (2017), “Panel smooth transition regression models”, CREATES Research Paper No. 2017-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark. Hansen, B.E. (1999), “Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 93, pp. 345-368. Imbs, J. and Ranciere, R. (2005), “The overhang hangover”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3673. International Monetary Fund (2018), Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment, The Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, IMF, Washington, DC. Kaminsky, G.L. and Pereira, A. (1996), “The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 50 No.1, pp. 1-24. Kremer, S., Bick, A. and Nautz, D. (2013), “Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis”, Empirical Economics, Vol. 44 No.2, pp. 861-878. Kumar, M.K. and Woo, J. (2010), “Public debt and growth”, IMF Working Paper No. WP/10/174. Lee, S., Seo, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2011), “Testing for threshold effects in regression models”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 106, pp. 220-231. Levine, R. and Renelt, D. (1992), “A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 82 No. 4, pp. 942-963. Manzano, O. and Rigobon, R. (2001), “Resource curse or debt overhang?”, NBER Working Paper No. 8390. Mensah, L., Allotey, D., Sarpong-Kumankoma, E. and Coffie, W. (2019), “What debt threshold hampers economic growth in Africa?”, International Journal of Development Issues, Vol. 19 No. 1, pp. 25-42, doi: 10.1108/IJDI-03-2019-0056. Mijiyawa, A.G. (2013), “Africa’s recent economic growth: what are the contributing factors?”, African Development Review, Vol. 25 No. 3, pp. 289-302. Ndoricimpa, A. (2014), “Heterogeneous panel causality between exports and growth in COMESA countries”, Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 48 No. 4, pp. 349-361. Ndoricimpa, A. (2017), “Threshold effects of debt on economic growth in Africa”, African Development Review, Vol. 29 No. 3, pp. 471-484. Pattillo, C., Poirson, H. and Ricci, L.A. (2011), “ External debt and growth” , Review of Economics and Institutions, Vol. 2 No. 3. doi: 10.5202/rei.v2i3.45. Pescatori, A., Sandri, D. and Simon, J. (2014), “Debt and growth: is there a magic threshold?”, IMF Working Paper No. WP/14/34. Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S. (2010), “Growth in a time of debt”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 100 No. 2, pp. 573-578. Rodrik, D. (1999), “Where did all the growth go? External shocks, social conflict, and growth collapses”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 4 No. 4, pp. 385-412. Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997), “I just ran two million regressions”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 87, pp. 178-183. Seleteng, M., Bittencourt, M. and van Eyden, R. (2013), “Non-linearities in inflation-growth nexus in the SADC region: panel smooth transition regression approach”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 30, pp. 149-156. Seo, M. and Shin, Y. (2016), “Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 195, pp. 169-186. Seo, M., Kim, S. and Kim, Y.-J. (2019), “Estimation of dynamic panel threshold model using STATA”, STATA Journal, Vol. 19 No. 3, pp. 685-697. Sokbae, L., Hyunmin, P., Seo, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2017), “Testing for a debt- threshold effect on output growth”, Fiscal Studies, Vol. 38 No. 4, pp. 701-717. Thanh, S.D. (2015), “Threshold effects of inflation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: a panel smooth transition regression approach”, Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Vol. 20, pp. 41-48. Vinayagathasan, T. (2013), “Inflation and economic growth: a dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 26, pp. 31-41. WDI (2018), “World Development Indicators, 2018”, The World Bank, Washington, DC. WDI (2019), “World Development Indicators, 2019”, The World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank (2018a), Debt Vulnerabilities in IDA Countries, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank (2018b), “Are poor countries headed towards another external debt crisis?”, Internal Note. World Bank (2019), “Debt in low-income countries: evolution, implications, and remedies”, Policy Research Working Paper No. 8794, World Bank Group, Washington, DC. | |
Bộ sưu tập | 02. Tạp chí (Tiếng Anh) | |
